In a huge upset, Donald Trump has won the 2016 US Election and will be the next president of the United States. Putting politics and personality aside, what does this mean for US importers and online sellers who are sourcing their product from China?
If we examine an earlier interview with the NY Times, Trump said that he would support a 45% tax on Chinese imports. Heads up, if this policy comes to pass when he takes office in January 2017, it will mean a huge big price increase if you’re importing product from China. For example if your current product cost is $5.00 per widget, with a 45% tax this could mean that your cost would skyrocket to $7.25 per piece. Now may be a good time to do a cost calculation to see if this you can stay in business under the Trump presidency!

If this does comes to pass what can you do? Here are a couple of options:
- Considering sourcing away from China
Consider sourcing locally from the US. The main idea of the tariff is to bring jobs back to the US. Trump is suggesting that these jobs would come back to the US. It sure sounds great to be able to order products from a company in the same country, eliminate the language and cultural barriers, get quicker delivery, all while creating new jobs, right? Not so fast.If we look the history at large companies like Walmart and their efforts at “on shoring” or bringing manufacturing back to the US, we can learn that those jobs didn’t come back for numerous reasons. One of the main reasons is the trend towards automation. This isn’t the 1920s with workers crowding an assembly line. Robots have taken over. Many manufacturing jobs that in the past required humans on the production line and now have been replaced by robot technology. Car manufacturers are a great example of this. If you visit their factory floor, you will see that it’s virtually empty except for the whirr of robotic arms assembling components to make cars. Earlier this year, Foxconn, Apple’s contract manufacturer in China, cut 60,000 jobs in their factories by replacing them with robot technology.
In an automated factory, the robots have won the jobs war Secondly, did you know that China is losing its jobs as well? A common misconception is that China is still the cheap factory of the world it once was. In fact labor costs in China rise upwards of 20% every year. According to a 2014 survey by the Economist Intelligence Unit, Shanghai is more expensive to live in than New York City. Because China isn’t as cheap as before, it means that like China is its losing jobs to “cheaper countries”. Where are those jobs going? To countries with lower labor costs such as India, Bangladesh, Thailand, Vietnam, and Cambodia. Some savvy Chinese companies have already invested and built factories in these countries to take advantage of their lower labor costs.
Do you really believe that if Trump taxes Chinese products those jobs will come back? I wouldn’t be so naive. If we look at the trend of what major companies like Nike, The Gap, and Apple have already done, these jobs have been moving out of China to South and Southeast Asia for years. So instead of sourcing from China you may end up sourcing from India or Vietnam instead.
- Negotiate better pricing from your supplier
Depending on the purchase volume, your relationship or “guanxi” with your supplier (how much the boss likes you), as well as your current pricing you may be able to get your costs down a few percentage points. But this will be a drop in the bucket compared to the big tax hike Trump is proposing. - Raise your prices
This is the natural result of the tax hike. Your customers will not be happy. But as they say, “when the tide rises all boats rise”. Your competitors will face the same stiff tax increase so everyone’s pricing will rise as a result.
In summary, the landscape could be changing very quickly if these policy changes take effect in 2017. What will you do if Trump’s 45% tariff on Chinese imports passes in 2017?











